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DiCaprio at the 2016 Golden Globes. (Getty) Inevitable is the first word that comes to mind when you describe Leonardo DiCaprio’s Oscar...

Leonardo DiCaprio and the 'Deserved' Oscar

DiCaprio at the 2016 Golden Globes. (Getty)

Inevitable is the first word that comes to mind when you describe Leonardo DiCaprio’s Oscar chances; deserved, a close second.

The inevitable part is easy to explain: In the run-up to Sunday’s 88th Academy Awards, DiCaprio has owned the Best Actor competition. He has won the Screen Actors Guild Award, the BAFTA, and the Golden Globe. Some risk-averse oddsmakers have set his Oscar line at 1 in 100, meaning he’s considered such a heavy favorite to claim the statuette for The Revenant that you’d have to bet $100 to earn a single buck on a DiCaprio win. 

The deserved part is likewise easy to explain: Oscar voting ain’t science. It’s subjective.

“It’s an industry town. It’s so inside,” says Jim Piazza, co-author, with Gail Kinn, of The Academy Awards: The Complete History of Oscar.

Votes can be driven by factors so intensely personal that if “you give people cheap wine [at a screening or event], they’re going to retaliate,” Piazza says.

On the flip side, voters can be swept up in the romantic notion that it’s an actor’s time — that an actor “deserves” a win.

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