In the last 40 years of Iowa caucusing — going back to 1976 — the winners on the Democratic side have gone on to win their party’s nomination seven or eight times, depending on how you count. The Republican winners have gone on to win the nomination six or seven times — again, it depends on how you count.
Why the fudging? Well. In 1976, Jimmy Carter got the most votes of any candidate — but the number of uncommitted voters was higher than the number of voters who chose him.
Of course, there were many years when the winner of the Iowa caucus wasn’t so hard to predict, because he had the advantage of being president, running for re-election. A sitting Republican president won the Iowa caucuses in 1984 (Ronald Reagan), ’92 (George H.W. Bush), and 2004 (George W. Bush.) On the Democratic side, a sitting president won in ’80 ( Carter ), ’96 (Clinton), and ’12 (Obama).
DEMOCRATS
2012: Barack Obama (incumbent who ran unopposed and beat Mitt Romney in the general election)
2008: Barack Obama (who beat John McCain in the general election)
2004: John Kerry (who won the nomination and lost to incumbent George W. Bush in the general election)
2000: Al Gore (who won the nomination and lost to George W. Bush in the general election)
1996: Bill Clinton (incumbent who ran unopposed and beat Bob Dole in the general election)
1992: Tom Harkin (who lost the nomination to Bill Clinton, who beat incumbent George H.W. Bush in the general election)
1988: Dick Gephardt (who lost the nomination to Michael Dukakis, who lost the general election to George H.W. Bush)
1984: Walter Mondale (who won the nomination but lost the general election to incumbent Ronald Reagan)
1980: Jimmy Carter (incumbent who ran unopposed but lost the general election to Ronald Reagan)
1976: Jimmy Carter , kind of (he had fewer votes than “uncommitted,” but won the nomination and beat incumbent Gerald Ford in the general election).
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